AnnaPurna Consulting

Business Intelligence Consulting

Surprise, surprise. Egypt in crisis

As I write this in Dubai, it seems that Hosni Mubarak’s days as President of Egypt are numbered. It reminds us of the transitory nature of power – although in Mubarak’s case the transit took some thirty years – and he hasn’t gone yet. But regimes that one day can seem to be anchor points on the political landscape, around which governments shape foreign policy and businesses structure their approach to key markets, can the next day be in a state of acute flux.

We seem surprised by sudden change. World leaders caught off guard respond with fancy political footwork and carefully coded statements as they rapidly recalibrate alliances. Markets get the jitters. [Read more…]

Twitter revolt

The departure for exile in Saudi Arabia of President Ben Ali of Tunisia seems to bear out the axiom that all political careers end in failure. Leaving the stage when the audience is asking you to stay is infinitely preferable to an ignominious scuttle to the airport. The longer you leave it – and the more you are seen to dither – the odds of a happy retirement decrease.

Quitting while you are ahead was as true for Roman emperors as it is today for North African republican “monarchs” or European prime ministers. But if the political ecology is ancient, the circumstances surrounding the “Jasmine Revolution” are very modern. [Read more…]

Borderlands: managing risks and creating opportunities in Mexico and Colombia

I was in Washington recently for our annual client conference and all the talk was about Mexico. The desperate state of Mexico’s border region is one of the hottest issues around. The brutal turf war being played out by drug-gangs in such close proximity to the US is causing much anxiety. The close ties between the two countries and the extent to which international companies are irreversibly invested in Mexico, makes this an issue that cannot be ignored, however tempting.

Much of the commentary on Mexico suggests the country is on the verge of becoming a failed state. This is an exaggeration and no doubt irritates many Mexicans who in turn underplay the extent of their problems. But at least this viewpoint gives us the opportunity to provide our clients with a more nuanced and useful perspective. [Read more…]

2011 – A new reality for business

If we could see the future, it would be Asian and urban. Since 2008, a majority of the world’s population has been living in a city and by 2050 only a quarter of us will be clinging to life in the countryside. The rise of the mega-city, particularly in India and China, is one of the most exciting but challenging social transformations of our age. By 2025 there will be eleven cities in Asia with populations over twenty million.

The risk consequences are significant. Crime, corruption, chronic poverty and extremism all prosper when rapid urbanisation is not matched by well planned infrastructure and good governance. The population of the world’s slums is growing by 25 million each year. Doing business successfully in these new environments will demand re-thinking all aspects of our business processes; none more so than the management of risk. The consequences of long-term shifts in urbanisation are by no means confined to Asia. But inevitably India, and particularly China, seem to have a near monopoly on jaw-dropping statistics. [Read more…]

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