As I write this, the battle for Sirte, Colonel Gaddafi’s birthplace, seems to be entering the final phase. As many as 10,000 people have fled the city, NATO airstrikes continue and reports of major casualties and an acute shortage of medical supplies reinforce the hope that the fighting will cease soon. Then only Bani Walid will remain among Libya’s major cities in the hands of Gaddafi loyalists.
Last week in Tripoli the sense of triumphalism was palpable. [Read more…]
Whatever happened to Tunisia? The most unlikely starting point of the political turmoil that has swept the Arab world has dropped out of the headlines. While Tunisia wrestles with the realisation that toppling a flaky leader is, in this case, a lot easier than root and branch regime change, the news crews and international affairs pundits have moved on. [Read more…]
My colleagues are departing for North Africa. And I am sitting here left behind in central London wishing I was going with them. History is being made and I want to see it up close.
But what kind of history? Commentators vie with each other for the most appropriate comparison.
– “Is it like 1989 and the fall of the Berlin Wall?”
– “No, this is the new 1968 and The Prague Spring?”
– “No it isn’t, this is just like 1848 and the spate of European revolutions that swept the continent.” [Read more…]
As I write this in Dubai, it seems that Hosni Mubarak’s days as President of Egypt are numbered. It reminds us of the transitory nature of power – although in Mubarak’s case the transit took some thirty years – and he hasn’t gone yet. But regimes that one day can seem to be anchor points on the political landscape, around which governments shape foreign policy and businesses structure their approach to key markets, can the next day be in a state of acute flux.
We seem surprised by sudden change. World leaders caught off guard respond with fancy political footwork and carefully coded statements as they rapidly recalibrate alliances. Markets get the jitters. [Read more…]
Approaching Basra from the air, you are left with two distinct impressions. The first is beige. As far as the eye can see, the landscape is remorseless beige, broken only by the distant flares of gas out in the oil fields and the resulting plumes of black smoke. The second is the almost unnatural flatness of the landscape, like a vast beige billiard table stretching towards Kuwait and Saudi Arabia.
This was my first visit to Basra since 2004. The change is remarkable. Back then the region was on the edge of descending into a prolonged period of insurgency and violence that prevented any meaningful rebuilding of the economy. This time the mood is different. The security situation remains challenging. But the overall environment is much more permissive and the remarkable activity underway in the oil fields is set to transform Basra, Iraq and the region. [Read more…]